After a long and strenuous evaluation period, we are proud to announce that our very own Michael Weissman has been accepted as a signal provider for Tradency's Mirror Trader program. Michael had a 67% win rate (29/43 trades) and made a net total of 424 pips during the evaluation period. You can follow Michael's trades by adding his username "beam1" to your Mirror Trader Portfolio.
If you don't yet have a Mirror Trader account yet, you can open a free demo here, or a live account here.
BeamFX is a guaranteed introducing broker for Institutional Liquidity (ILQ).
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Thursday, January 17, 2013
Wednesday, January 16, 2013
Forex Trading: EUR/USD
My (short term) fundamental bias on the Euro is lower, and price action has presented me with a setup I like to play, so I shorted at 1.3340 and added at 1.3280 after the trade began going in my favor. The trade has what I consider to be a good probability of hitting the target due to what I call a price inefficiency (a rapid directional move in price without previous price action close behind it.) If the 1.3250 support barrier breaks (previous support + 200 DMA) I think the price inefficiency will get run and the 1.3150 TP will get hit fairly quickly, although price may pause at the 2nd 200 DMA around the 1.3200 figure.
My Stop Loss
I consider managing my risk to be the most important part of trading. In this case I've defined my risk at 1.3375. I put soft resistance at 1.3350. If that breaks, and we hit 1.3375, I think there's a good chance of stops being run above the 1.3400 figure. (Previous swing high is 1.3405 - not a solid stop run, although stops really hadn't had a chance to accumulate there before the move through the big figure.) So my cost average is 1.3310, with a SL 65 pips higher and a TP 160 pips lower - roughly a 1:2.5 risk to reward ratio.
Below is my 1H chart.
Alternative Scenario
If we do see a move higher to 1.3350, that level should prove crucial to directing future price action. It should either serve as stiff resistance and reject price back to the 1.3300 figure (and ultimately lower) or it should serve as a brief zone of consolidation before a move higher (past my SL at 1.3375) on its way to run stops through 1.3430-1.3440.
Note: This is not a trade recommendation. Trade at your own risk.
Monday, January 14, 2013
BeamFX Now Offers Mirror Trader!
Mirror Trader is a comprehensive trading platform, providing you
with unique tools for trading by knowledge: Live signals, sentiments,
market charts, oscillators and chart studies.
Mirror Trader uses cutting edge technology to offer a user friendly trading experience, a wide set of innovative features and robust execution. In addition, the Mirror Trader gives you an edge by providing access to a knowledge database of a wide range of trading strategies.
The Mirror Trader introduces traders to the "Trade by Knowledge" concept:
Manual Trading
Execute trades using the Mirror Trader’s charting tools, indicators and chart studies. Take advantage of the strategies signals and sentiments to support your trading decisions and open up new trading ideas.
Semi Automatic Mirroring
Active execution of signals, based on your judgment and understanding. View all the strategies’ “buy” and “sell” signals in real time and choose the trades you want to mirror to your account.
Automatic Mirroring
Automatic real-time execution, based on your selected strategies. Select strategies to your trading portfolio and the Mirror Trader will automatically execute their orders in your trading account.
Mirror Trader’s Advantages:
You can sign up for a Live Mirror Trader Account here.
You can sign up for a Demo Mirror Trader Account here.
Mirror Trader uses cutting edge technology to offer a user friendly trading experience, a wide set of innovative features and robust execution. In addition, the Mirror Trader gives you an edge by providing access to a knowledge database of a wide range of trading strategies.
The Mirror Trader introduces traders to the "Trade by Knowledge" concept:
Manual Trading
Execute trades using the Mirror Trader’s charting tools, indicators and chart studies. Take advantage of the strategies signals and sentiments to support your trading decisions and open up new trading ideas.
Semi Automatic Mirroring
Active execution of signals, based on your judgment and understanding. View all the strategies’ “buy” and “sell” signals in real time and choose the trades you want to mirror to your account.
Automatic Mirroring
Automatic real-time execution, based on your selected strategies. Select strategies to your trading portfolio and the Mirror Trader will automatically execute their orders in your trading account.
Mirror Trader’s Advantages:
- Manual trading, Semi Automatic Mirroring, and Automatic Mirroring in one platform
- Benefit from experienced traders’ knowledge
- Control and manage real-time signals generated by worldwide strategy developers
- Back up your trading decision with market trends from strategies and users
- Exclusive features such as: Live signals and strategies detailed analysis, as well as popular trading tools: charts, indicators, oscillators, rates and market sentiments
You can sign up for a Live Mirror Trader Account here.
You can sign up for a Demo Mirror Trader Account here.
Wednesday, January 9, 2013
Australian Retail Sales Fall
Australian Retail Sales came in at -0.1% m/m versus an expected gain of 0.3% and a previous reading of 0.0%.
This follows the rather large miss in the Australian Trade Balance earlier this weak and the previous number being revised substantially lower. Actual: -2.64B, Exp: -2.21B, Previous -2.44B
These data prints coming in lower than expected should not surprise anyone. Australia's economy has recently shown serious signs of deterioration, especially in the month of December. Forex Factory shows that of 22 economic data releases in the month of December, 60% of them either missed the consensus estimate to the downside, or came in lower than the previous reading. The ones that did not miss or come in lower were definitely not good. Yet, AUD/USD continues to trend upwards. We believe the high correlation between AUD/USD and the S&P 500 is the reason why. If the U.S. equity markets were to unravel, there is a strong fundamental argument to be made for a sharp decline in AUD/USD.
Below are the Australian economic data releases for the month of December.
Actual Expected Previous
DROP AIG Manufacturing Index 43.6 45.2
DROP MI Inflation Gauge m/m -0.1% 0.1%
DROP NAB Business Confidence -9 -1
DROP Westpac Consumer Sentiment -4.1% 5.2%
DROP MI Inflation Expectations 1.8% 2.2%
DROP MI Leading Index m/m 0.1% 0.6%
MISS Private Sector Credit m/m 0.0% 0.3% 0.1%
MISS Company Operating Profits q/q -2.9% -2.8% -0.3%
MISS Retail Sales m/m 0.0% 0.4% 0.5%
MISS Building Approvals m/m -7.6% -1.8% 9.5%
MISS Current Account -14.9B -14.7B -12.4B
MISS GDP q/q 0.5% 0.6% 0.6%
MISS Home Loans m/m 0.1% 3.1% 1.1%
- Trade Balance *1 -2.09B -2.15B -1.42B
- ANZ Job Advertisements m/m -2.9% -4.6%
- Commodity Prices y/y -11.6% -16.2%
- CB Leading Index m/m 0.2% -0.4%
- New Motor Vehicle Sales m/m 0.0% -2.5%
- AIG Services Index *2 47.1 42.8
- AIG Construction Index *2 37.0 35.8
- 7:30pm Employment Change *3 13.9K 0.2K 10.2K
- Unemployment Rate *3 5.2% 5.5% 5.4%
*1: Australia's economy is driven by exports. Bad trade balance numbers have negative implications for the economy
*2: A number below 50 means contraction.
*3: Both of these numbers are not necessarily good. The drop in the unemployment rate was due to a drop in the participation rate as job seekers became discouraged and stopped looking for jobs. The rise in overall employment was good, but only due to the increase in part time jobs. Full time jobs actually dropped by 4200 in December.
This follows the rather large miss in the Australian Trade Balance earlier this weak and the previous number being revised substantially lower. Actual: -2.64B, Exp: -2.21B, Previous -2.44B
These data prints coming in lower than expected should not surprise anyone. Australia's economy has recently shown serious signs of deterioration, especially in the month of December. Forex Factory shows that of 22 economic data releases in the month of December, 60% of them either missed the consensus estimate to the downside, or came in lower than the previous reading. The ones that did not miss or come in lower were definitely not good. Yet, AUD/USD continues to trend upwards. We believe the high correlation between AUD/USD and the S&P 500 is the reason why. If the U.S. equity markets were to unravel, there is a strong fundamental argument to be made for a sharp decline in AUD/USD.
Below are the Australian economic data releases for the month of December.
Actual Expected Previous
DROP AIG Manufacturing Index 43.6 45.2
DROP MI Inflation Gauge m/m -0.1% 0.1%
DROP NAB Business Confidence -9 -1
DROP Westpac Consumer Sentiment -4.1% 5.2%
DROP MI Inflation Expectations 1.8% 2.2%
DROP MI Leading Index m/m 0.1% 0.6%
MISS Private Sector Credit m/m 0.0% 0.3% 0.1%
MISS Company Operating Profits q/q -2.9% -2.8% -0.3%
MISS Retail Sales m/m 0.0% 0.4% 0.5%
MISS Building Approvals m/m -7.6% -1.8% 9.5%
MISS Current Account -14.9B -14.7B -12.4B
MISS GDP q/q 0.5% 0.6% 0.6%
MISS Home Loans m/m 0.1% 3.1% 1.1%
- Trade Balance *1 -2.09B -2.15B -1.42B
- ANZ Job Advertisements m/m -2.9% -4.6%
- Commodity Prices y/y -11.6% -16.2%
- CB Leading Index m/m 0.2% -0.4%
- New Motor Vehicle Sales m/m 0.0% -2.5%
- AIG Services Index *2 47.1 42.8
- AIG Construction Index *2 37.0 35.8
- 7:30pm Employment Change *3 13.9K 0.2K 10.2K
- Unemployment Rate *3 5.2% 5.5% 5.4%
*1: Australia's economy is driven by exports. Bad trade balance numbers have negative implications for the economy
*2: A number below 50 means contraction.
*3: Both of these numbers are not necessarily good. The drop in the unemployment rate was due to a drop in the participation rate as job seekers became discouraged and stopped looking for jobs. The rise in overall employment was good, but only due to the increase in part time jobs. Full time jobs actually dropped by 4200 in December.
Tuesday, January 8, 2013
Institutional Liquidity (ILQ) Enters Australia
ILQ has recently opened a branch in Australia and obtained permission to operate there by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission (ASIC). While ILQ was able to work with non-US clients before, this move will allow them to expand their capabilities and available products which they can offer to clients. ILQ Australia offers hedging and 100:1 leverage to non-US residents.
You can open an account with ILQ Australia through BeamFX using the link here.
BeamFX is a Guaranteed Introducing Broker for ILQ.
You can open an account with ILQ Australia through BeamFX using the link here.
BeamFX is a Guaranteed Introducing Broker for ILQ.
Monday, January 7, 2013
Forex Trading - Market Update
Stock Market - Up or Down?
Yes, this is a blog focused on the FX market, not the stock market. So why do I bring equities up? There's a strong correlation between movements in the S&P 500 and currencies like the Aussie and Kiwi against the U.S. Dollar. For example, if the U.S. equity markets were to capitulate tomorrow over fears of the U.S. debt ceiling then the Aussie and Kiwi would most likely depreciate sharply against safe haven currencies such as the U.S. Dollar and Japanese Yen.
The equity markets were down today, but in the general scheme of things they have continued to grind higher. There are many pessimistic views about the market that are elaborately laid out, but the reality of the situation is that most of the people who call tops and bottoms get hurt. When it comes to U.S. stocks we're clearly in a bull market. Now, could stocks go down tomorrow and continue going down for the next 3 months? Sure. But as of right now, we're in a bull market. U.S. Stocks have been pushing higher since March 2009 - almost 4 years ago.
Not being able to define the current state of the market for what it really is because of a bias - be it from an open position or a personal opinion about the "true" economic health of a country/region can be a huge detriment to your trading. So that said, let me again repeat - we're in a bull market.
FX Market Update
The USD was sold today (and on Friday) after making some significant progress last week. See the Ice dollar index here, and the more properly weighted WSJ dollar index here. As we previously noted, we attribute the recent USD strength to the hawkish FOMC minutes that were recently released. The main reason that the USD weakened on Friday was that the unemployment rate increased, a "negative" for the probability of QE ending sooner rather than later.
That said, the idea of QE ending has been flashing across media headlines and the concept of QE ending can not be stuffed back into a box. Look for the monthly unemployment numbers to have a significant impact on markets. The weekly numbers will probably have more of an impact as well - we advise being mindful of the Unemployment Claims on Thursday - Exp: 361, Previous: 372
Yes, this is a blog focused on the FX market, not the stock market. So why do I bring equities up? There's a strong correlation between movements in the S&P 500 and currencies like the Aussie and Kiwi against the U.S. Dollar. For example, if the U.S. equity markets were to capitulate tomorrow over fears of the U.S. debt ceiling then the Aussie and Kiwi would most likely depreciate sharply against safe haven currencies such as the U.S. Dollar and Japanese Yen.
The equity markets were down today, but in the general scheme of things they have continued to grind higher. There are many pessimistic views about the market that are elaborately laid out, but the reality of the situation is that most of the people who call tops and bottoms get hurt. When it comes to U.S. stocks we're clearly in a bull market. Now, could stocks go down tomorrow and continue going down for the next 3 months? Sure. But as of right now, we're in a bull market. U.S. Stocks have been pushing higher since March 2009 - almost 4 years ago.
Not being able to define the current state of the market for what it really is because of a bias - be it from an open position or a personal opinion about the "true" economic health of a country/region can be a huge detriment to your trading. So that said, let me again repeat - we're in a bull market.
FX Market Update
The USD was sold today (and on Friday) after making some significant progress last week. See the Ice dollar index here, and the more properly weighted WSJ dollar index here. As we previously noted, we attribute the recent USD strength to the hawkish FOMC minutes that were recently released. The main reason that the USD weakened on Friday was that the unemployment rate increased, a "negative" for the probability of QE ending sooner rather than later.
That said, the idea of QE ending has been flashing across media headlines and the concept of QE ending can not be stuffed back into a box. Look for the monthly unemployment numbers to have a significant impact on markets. The weekly numbers will probably have more of an impact as well - we advise being mindful of the Unemployment Claims on Thursday - Exp: 361, Previous: 372
Thursday, January 3, 2013
FOMC minutes signal end of QE!
The Federal Open Market Committee minutes showed that Fed officials were not in agreement over when to halt the Quantitative Easing (QE) programs. Some officials wanted to continue the programs to the end of 2013, some wanted to end the programs before then, and other officials wanted to end the QE programs immediately.
Just as the bad economic numbers this year have caused the stock market to go higher (and USD lower) due to the increased chance of more QE, now good economic numbers could cause the USD to significantly strengthen and equities to drop as it signals an increased chance of the end of QE.
We believe these minutes will lead to the USD strengthening over the medium term, with a sell-off in equities likely to follow improvements in the labor market. This turns tomorrow's jobs report into a catalyst that could potentially trigger a significant move in USD.
Just as the bad economic numbers this year have caused the stock market to go higher (and USD lower) due to the increased chance of more QE, now good economic numbers could cause the USD to significantly strengthen and equities to drop as it signals an increased chance of the end of QE.
We believe these minutes will lead to the USD strengthening over the medium term, with a sell-off in equities likely to follow improvements in the labor market. This turns tomorrow's jobs report into a catalyst that could potentially trigger a significant move in USD.
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