Friday, February 22, 2013

Forex Trading: GBP/USD

GBP/USD has just spiked up as the .382 fib retracement at 1.5250 held. There's a price inefficiency from 1.5315 to 1.5415 that price may move through very quickly if it breaks above the swing high of 1.5325.

GBP/USD has come down from 1.6350 to put in a fresh yearly low at 1.5130 - a move of over 1200 pips!! It has made the move down with really no corrective move and very littler consolidation, so there's plenty of scope for a bounce at these levels.

EUR/GBP is also beginning to drop along with EUR/USD (currently down 500 pips from a high of 1.3700) due to political risk & negative growth revisions. If it continues dropping it will contribute to GBP strength as the Euro is the #2 most liquid currency in the world (think of the cross effect EUR/GBP has on GBP/USD in terms of volume traded.)

Below, a picture perfect example of a price inefficiency.




Update: Moodys downgraded the U.K.'s credit rating on Friday after the U.S. equity markets closed causing the GBP to drop sharply against its peers and gap lower 100 pips on Sunday's open. It just goes to show you that good setups are never guaranteed to work. We all have losing trades; but managing risk is what sets the successful traders apart from everyone else.

It still remains an attractive setup that we'll look to play if price makes its way back up to 1.5315


No comments:

Post a Comment