Wednesday, October 3, 2012

Forex Trading - Market Update

Market Update
GBP/USD came under pressure in yesterday's U.S. session, and is currently down 50 pips against the dollar on the day. I remain short GBP/USD at 1.6163 and am looking to hold the position into the GBP event risk tomorrow. (An asset purchasing decision, bank rate decision, and MPC rate statement.) You can keep tabs on all of tomorrow's event risk at Forex Factory. EUR/USD is currently trading at -15 pips on the day and AUD/USD is trading at -50 pips on the day. (Although the move largely happened in the Asian session). I thought the moves today stemming from the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI data releases would be larger; but the market appears to be on hold ahead of the major event risk tomorrow.

Although I favor shorting into strength, I'm being extremely careful not to become mentally locked into any position. I'm being especially careful of shorting the Euro, as any comments that Draghi may make at the press conference tomorrow may give the Euro a boost. It has exhibited unusual strength over the past 3 days against the dollar (Currently +50 pips on a 3 day basis) while AUD/USD & GBP/USD have come off of their highs. If there's a rate cut tomorrow at 07:45 EST, the resulting move down has the potential to be quickly retraced at the 08:30 ECB press conference. Again, my bias is to the downside, but I'm being very nimble when it comes to short term trades. Our live trade room will be open tomorrow from 7:45 - 10:45 AM EST. We answer questions and provide live commentary on breaking news & price action.

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