Thursday, October 11, 2012

Romney Win = Bad for Stocks?

There seems to be a general consensus among market participants that it would be good for the stock market if Mitt Romney were to be elected president. There was an article on CNBC that suggested that a group of stocks in particular would do well if Romney were to be elected. Most people don't realize that a Romney win will most likely result in a broad sell-off in the U.S. stock market. Why would this happen? We believe that Romney being elected will most likely result in an end to QEternity. (A stop to the current endless monetary stimulus spewing from the Federal Reserve.) Current market prices are very much still based on expectations of the Fed continuing to support the markets. Expectations about Quantitative Easing from the Fed in particular, have a very strong effect on the dollar. As the U.S. stock market is "hooked" on this easing, the end of this easing will likely result in a dramatic drop in the stock market. 

Apparently other people are coming to the same conclusion as well. I found an article on Business Insider which states that Jim Bianco thinks that Romney doing better in the polls is the reason the equity markets have been correcting in the last week. I think that's far fetched, but this theory is definitely something you should definitely be aware of. Even in the pre-election period that we are currently in, this theory may play into expectations if Romney pulls ahead in the polls.


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