Friday, September 7, 2012

NFP reports spurs QE3 speculation

Today's Non Farm Payrolls came in today with 96K new jobs added in the month of August. Consensus was for 130K new jobs and the previous number was revised down to 141K. Market participants generally regarded these numbers as dismal and there was an immediate increase in expectations over QE3 (coming sooner rather than later.) As I said before today's US trading session, irrational sentiment is still strong. You have to be careful trading counter trend.

My Trades:

- I watched stops being run out in GBP/USD and took a short position at 1.6030 with a SL at 1.6070. I'll take half of the trade off at 1.6000 or at the end of the day and move the SL to breakeven.

- The second trade I'm looking at is an AUD/USD short; but I want the stops above the 1.0400 figure to get run out. If they get run out today, I'll go short at 1.0420 with a SL at 1.0445 and hold it over the weekend. I like this trade for two reason: first, over the last two days we've had a strong risk rally in the currency markets and I don't see this rally holding over into the Asian/European sessions on Monday. Second, there's Chinese data that's scheduled to be released over the weekend and I'm speculating that it will come in worse than expected.


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