The numbers below are end of the year estimates for EUR/USD from May 21st. The current consensus estimate for EUR/USD at the end of the year was 1.23 (according to Bloomberg about a week ago). There are estimates on opposite ends of the spectrum here, and I think it really comes down to whether or not a Grexit occurs. In case anyone missed the news flash, the Troika report that was due out in early/mid October was "delayed due to possible effects on the global economy before the Presidential elections." It will now be released in November after the election. We know that Greece has not kept their promises concerning budget cuts and if they don't reach an agreement with the Troika in the current negotiations, they may not receive the third tranche of aid. The situation essentially boils down to whether or not the Germans will continue bailing out Greece. It appears that the Obama administration didn't want to risk a global sell-off in equity indexes and pressured their European counterparts to delay the report. This doesn't necessarily mean that a Grexit will occur - just that that Obama administration didn't want to risk it before the election.
Deutsche Bank AG $1.30
Citigroup Inc. $1.25
Barclays Plc $1.20
UBS AG $1.15
HSBC Holdings Plc $1.44
JPMorgan Chase & Co. $1.36
Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc $1.33
Credit Suisse Group AG $1.27
Morgan Stanley $1.19
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. $1.33
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-20/hedge-funds-rebuild-bearish-euro-bets-for-greek-exit-banks-weigh.html
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